Analysis of the shocking Fisher campaign news

Time at Plunderbund offers his view of the surprising decision by Lee Fisher's campaign manager, Geri Prado, to step down:

Either Lee is unhappy with his campaign, and fired Prado, or Prado is unhappy with Lee, and got the hell outta there. I suppose those two things aren’t mutually exclusive. Working for Lee Fisher is one of the most self-abusive gigs in all of politics. But no matter the reason, turmoil at this level in a US Senate campaign, 3 months out, before the candidate even files, is a sign of a campaign tanking.

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BREAKING: Fisher Campaign Manager Steps Down

Geri Prado, campaign manager for Lee Fisher's Senate campaign, is apparently no longer in that position. With three months to go until the primary, it is apparent that the Fisher campaign is worried. They have not been able to separate themselves from Jennifer Brunner, despite their fundraising advantage.

More details as they come out.

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Petitions: filed.

It is now official. Lee Fisher will have a primary opponent. That opponent will be Jennifer Brunner, who filed her paperwork this morning. It is on!

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While we were away

New polling has confirmed what we have known all along: Jennifer Brunner would have a better chance of beating Rob Portman in the general election. A Rasmussen poll last week put Portman ahead of Brunner 43%-40% (within the margin of error). When matched up with Lee Fisher, Portman had a much larger 44%-37% lead.

This is further proof that the momentum is all on one side in this race. However, as Mark Naymik points out for The Plain Dealer, the numbers could move once the Fisher campaign takes to television. That is why we have reached a pivotal point in this campaign. If there were ever a time for you to consider volunteering or donating money to the campaign, now is that time. It will not be easy, but this race is very winnable.

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The campaign becomes official

Sorry we have been away for a while. We needed to spend some time resting up for what is sure to be a very exciting year.

And here we go: reports say that Jennifer Brunner will file her petition to run for the U.S. Senate tomorrow morning. If she was going to drop out and concede to Lee Fisher, she would have done so already. This filing means that she is in it all the way. If Fisher wants to be the party's nominee, he is going to have to earn it.

Stay tuned, ladies and gentlemen. It should be fun.

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Attend a strategy meeting in your area

We've said it before, and we'll say it again: Jennifer Brunner will win because her grassroots organization will be superior to all challengers. But that means she needs you to get involved. Donating money would be a great start, but it is going to take more than that. Elections are won on the ground. Sign up now to get more information about how you can get involved, and start making a real difference right away. This is about our future, and politics is not a spectator sport.

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The Forthcoming Deadline

Remember, folks, the end of the year will also mean the end of another fundraising quarter. Once again, Lee Fisher will outraise Jennifer Brunner, and the media will declare the race over. Of course, we know better. Nonetheless, it would be really nice to see the Brunner campaign put up some good numbers.

Please consider making a contribution today. I know it is the holidays, and money is tight, but this is about the future of our state, and our nation. An investment in the Brunner campaign is an investment in Ohio. Donate by using the ActBlue link at the right of this page (underneath Jennifer Brunner's photo) or by visiting jenniferbrunner.com.

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Brunner in National Journal

Read the full article here.

It is, of course, worth a read through. Here are some of the juicy details:

The Buckeye State, Brunner noted, is expected to lose 2 congressional districts after the '10 Census, and she said each party can expect to shed one. For that reason, Brunner said that when she met with Space, he "admitted his endorsement of Fisher had to do with the governor's potential role in determining which districts would be eliminated after the census."

Getting play like this in a national magazine is nothing but good for the Brunner campaign. It is further proof that she has not been written off, and people are paying attention. Her feisty attitude is also proof that she is not planning on leaving the race anytime soon, and she is willing to put her political career on the line for this.

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How Lee Fisher decides what he stands for

"Time after time, Lee Fisher only takes a position after hearing what Brunner has said on the topic and he almost always takes essentially the same position." Read more good insight here.

We have seen it a lot in this campaign. Jennifer Brunner takes a position, and details it fully and articulately. Two or three days later, the Fish comes out with a short statement that states that his position is the same, without much explanation. The most recent examples are obviously the troop surge in Afghanistan and the Stupak Amendment. I think that it is almost a certainty that if Jennifer Brunner were not in the race, the Fish never would have bothered to let us know where he stood on these issues. That's not leadership.

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Hope everyone had a great Monday!

Brunner talks jobs

This video, via Progress Ohio, is from WUPW in Toledo. While Lee Fisher is touting endorsements from his own consultants, Jennifer Brunner is talking about an issue that matters to you.

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The "Oh Shit" Poll

That would be one way to describe this one, that shows Governor Strickland trailing John Kasich 48%-39%. But on the bright side, maybe people won't realize that Lee Fisher is Lieutenant Governor, and his numbers will surely be better? Right?

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A different kind of campaign

There seems to be basically two ways that a politician can go about running for a big office. They can take the safe road, and only take positions on simple, non-controversial issues. This is the road that Lee Fisher is on. His website lays out his positions in terms that almost every Democrat can agree on, and avoids the more hot button issues such as gay marriage, etc. He came out against the troop surge in Afghanistan and the Stupak amendment only after he realized that those had became mainstream Democratic causes. Running a campaign this way is an insult to the people who actually pay attention, but it is smart politics.

Another, less politically wise option for candidates is exemplified by Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, who wants to be President in 2012. Pawlenty, and many other Republicans, are overly eager to take a position on everything. When Obama bowed in Japan, they were out with a statement. When Obama wanted to have a beer with Gates and the Cambridge police officer, they were out with a statement. Every single debate that comes up in Congress, they put out a statement, as if what the Governor of Minnesota (or the former Governors of Arkansas and Massachusetts, etc.) thinks matters to the people of every other state. Doing this shows nothing but a desperation to stay relevant.

And then there is what Jennifer Brunner is doing. Rather than simply releasing statements, she puts forth thoughtful, well-informed, detailed proposals on matters of policy. And she does so not only on topics that are politically advantageous, but on ones that she believes in, from her opposition to the troop surge to her opposition to capital punishment. Perhaps Jennifer Brunner is the underdog because she is not nearly as shrewd of a politician as Lee Fisher. But that is exactly the reason that she will make a better United States Senator.

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You can feel the momentum

Jennifer Brunner is gaining more and more steam every day. As is often the case, the blogosphere was on the bandwagon first. See this post from Tim Russo at Plunderbund:

In the past week, two things happened which further proves that Jennifer Brunner will be our US Senate nominee in 2010. Lee Fisher pandered to the base on Afghanistan, proving to us all that he believes he has a primary, and the GOP yawned, attacking Brunner over Afghanistan instead.

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Brunner: Recycle Bailout Money for Infrastructure Jobs

How does this woman keep coming up with all of these ideas? In an email to supporters and blog post, Jennifer Brunner proposes using leftover bailout money to improve Ohio's terrible infrastructure, creating new jobs in the process:

Instead of borrowing more money and digging our deficit hole deeper to fund
nation-building activities in Iraq and Afghanistan, Congress should invest a
substantial portion of the unspent TARP funding on nation-building here at home.
And we can start by rebuilding our infrastructure, state-by-state. Here in Ohio,
investing in our aging highways, bridges, and water and sewer systems will make
our lives safer while creating jobs for tens of thousands of Ohioans who want to
work.

What good ideas have Fisher or Portman had lately?

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What does Lee Fisher think we should do in Afghanistan? Nobody knows.

Yesterday, Jennifer Brunner offered thoughtful insight about where she feels U.S. policy in Afghanistan should be headed. Rarely do you see candidates running for major office take such an unambiguous stance on a controversial issue. But when Jennifer Brunner believes in something, she stands up for it (see: gay marriage, death penalty).

Lee Fisher, on the other hand, seems to believe in only one thing: winning elections. That is why you don't see him taking a stand at all on what very well could be the most important foreign policy decision that President Obama ever makes. OhioDaily touched on this yesterday.

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The Issues

Both the Fisher and Brunner campaign websites feature a section outlining their candidate's positions on the issues. You can view Fisher's here and Brunner's here. What jumps out as you first glance at these pages? The Brunner website includes a section for "Reproductive Freedom," "Civil Rights," and "Reforming the Financial System." It would seem as though a woman's right to choose, equality for all Americans, and fixing the broken financial system are not important to Lee Fisher, as he does not include his position on any of them on his website. He does, however, include his position on "Children." Apparently he supports them.

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Why is Lee Fisher not further ahead?

It is a fair question, is it not? The media has all but crowned him as the Democratic nominee, because of his superior fundraising, yet the polls remain neck and neck. You could argue that he hasn't actually spent much of that money yet, which is true. But what exactly is he going to buy that will suddenly convince voters that he is a better choice? Most voters already know Lee Fisher and know him well, so the fact that they are not supporting him yet is a very bad sign for him.

On top of the money, there is the growing number of endorsements from elected officials across the state, and he keeps adding more. But as he as continued to add more endorsements and raise more money, Jennifer Brunner has steadily gained on him in the polls. It really doesn't seem to make much sense. But, that is the great thing about primaries these days. The establishment does not get to decide. The voters do. And that is a good thing, because we are a lot smarter than they are.

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Specific Policy Proposals

That is what Jennifer Brunner offers today in a piece posted at Huffington Post:

But what do they do after Veterans Day has come and gone? That's when the real
work begins. Rather than simply honor our veterans once a year, we need to take
the walk of all the great talk by helping to improve their lives on a daily
basis. Veterans Day should be more than a celebration of the heroism and
dedication of the brave women and men who have fought for our freedom; it should
also be a sharp reminder that we need to confront the ongoing struggles facing
veterans and their families.
Here are four simple measures that Congress
should move quickly so they are considered in the decisions about what we do
about ramping up or down the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, not just for the
returning vets, but for their loved ones who want them back in their lives in
all ways...

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More Abortion Politics

An article in the National Journal today by Amy Walter caught the eye of Jennifer Brunner. It mentions her and Martha Coakley as being the "first Senate candidates to say they'd vote against a Senate bill that included restrictions on abortion coverage." The article also calls into question the need for organizations focused solely on women's issues:

And many have wondered if EMILY's List, an organization dedicated solely to
electing pro-choice Democratic women, has outlived its usefulness. After all, in
an era that saw a woman come so close to being elected president, a women's-only
group can sound as outdated as the three-martini lunch.

It should be noted that EMILY's List has endorsed Martha Coakley, but has so far failed to support Jennifer Brunner, at a time when she is clearly one of the best female candidates running for office in the entire country. As others have pointed out, blogs alone cannot raise enough money to support her campaign. It is time for more national organizations to step up to the plate.

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