Analysis of the shocking Fisher campaign news

Time at Plunderbund offers his view of the surprising decision by Lee Fisher's campaign manager, Geri Prado, to step down:

Either Lee is unhappy with his campaign, and fired Prado, or Prado is unhappy with Lee, and got the hell outta there. I suppose those two things aren’t mutually exclusive. Working for Lee Fisher is one of the most self-abusive gigs in all of politics. But no matter the reason, turmoil at this level in a US Senate campaign, 3 months out, before the candidate even files, is a sign of a campaign tanking.

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BREAKING: Fisher Campaign Manager Steps Down

Geri Prado, campaign manager for Lee Fisher's Senate campaign, is apparently no longer in that position. With three months to go until the primary, it is apparent that the Fisher campaign is worried. They have not been able to separate themselves from Jennifer Brunner, despite their fundraising advantage.

More details as they come out.

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The Twitter Primary

At the time of this post, Lee Fisher's Twitter page has 493 followers. Jennifer Brunner's Twitter page has 1,214 followers. That is very nearly three times as many followers for JB.

What does it mean? Well, probably not much. But it may say something about the enthusiasm for one candidate over another, or perhaps the advantage she has in online organizing. Or, it may be because Jennifer Brunner's "tweets" are interesting and sound like they were written by a human being, while Lee Fisher's are robotic and sound like they were written by a consultant.

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While we were away

New polling has confirmed what we have known all along: Jennifer Brunner would have a better chance of beating Rob Portman in the general election. A Rasmussen poll last week put Portman ahead of Brunner 43%-40% (within the margin of error). When matched up with Lee Fisher, Portman had a much larger 44%-37% lead.

This is further proof that the momentum is all on one side in this race. However, as Mark Naymik points out for The Plain Dealer, the numbers could move once the Fisher campaign takes to television. That is why we have reached a pivotal point in this campaign. If there were ever a time for you to consider volunteering or donating money to the campaign, now is that time. It will not be easy, but this race is very winnable.

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The campaign becomes official

Sorry we have been away for a while. We needed to spend some time resting up for what is sure to be a very exciting year.

And here we go: reports say that Jennifer Brunner will file her petition to run for the U.S. Senate tomorrow morning. If she was going to drop out and concede to Lee Fisher, she would have done so already. This filing means that she is in it all the way. If Fisher wants to be the party's nominee, he is going to have to earn it.

Stay tuned, ladies and gentlemen. It should be fun.

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Two very different emails

Yersterday, I received a fundraising email from the Fisher campaign:

Our important end-of-year financial reporting deadline is quickly approaching, and I would very much appreciate your help now, so that I can continue the fight.

A few hours later, I received an email from the Brunner campaign:

During the holiday season… I’d like to ask you to give your time and money to your favorite charity, instead of giving it to my campaign.

Two very different emails, eh? Joseph over at Plunderbund was impressed:

While Fisher’s crew has been sitting on the sidelines waiting for Brunner to drop out, J-Bru’s team has really done a great job of changing the conversation, getting out in front of the issues and making Fisher look like a total slacker.

Brunner’s team is quickly proving they are more agile, clever, responsive and smart. Today’s fundraising emails from the two campaigns provide a great example.

Of course, you should still give money to Jennifer Brunner, even if she doesn't want you to. These emails only offer further proof that we need to elect her as our next U.S. Senator.

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The Forthcoming Deadline

Remember, folks, the end of the year will also mean the end of another fundraising quarter. Once again, Lee Fisher will outraise Jennifer Brunner, and the media will declare the race over. Of course, we know better. Nonetheless, it would be really nice to see the Brunner campaign put up some good numbers.

Please consider making a contribution today. I know it is the holidays, and money is tight, but this is about the future of our state, and our nation. An investment in the Brunner campaign is an investment in Ohio. Donate by using the ActBlue link at the right of this page (underneath Jennifer Brunner's photo) or by visiting jenniferbrunner.com.

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How Lee Fisher decides what he stands for

"Time after time, Lee Fisher only takes a position after hearing what Brunner has said on the topic and he almost always takes essentially the same position." Read more good insight here.

We have seen it a lot in this campaign. Jennifer Brunner takes a position, and details it fully and articulately. Two or three days later, the Fish comes out with a short statement that states that his position is the same, without much explanation. The most recent examples are obviously the troop surge in Afghanistan and the Stupak Amendment. I think that it is almost a certainty that if Jennifer Brunner were not in the race, the Fish never would have bothered to let us know where he stood on these issues. That's not leadership.

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Hope everyone had a great Monday!

Lee Fisher's worthless endorsements

Harry Reid! David Plouffe! Man oh man, the Fish seems well on his way being the Democratic nominee, doesn't he? Well, in the words of Lee Corso, "Not so fast my friends!" Plunderbund has a good post up on the subject:

I know I’m not the only Democrat who thinks that Harry Reid’s support has some downside (after all, currently polling shows Reid getting blown out of the water in his re-election campaign next year in Nevada.) The Fisher campaign's website conspicuously omits any reference to Senate Majority Leader Reid’s support.

This is the same campaign website that’s been updated to continue to shamelessly promote the endorsement of David Plouffe, even though Plouffe’s company is a paid political consultant to the Fisher campaign.

Have you also noticed that while the Old Media has been quick to point out Fisher’s money and endorsements, they never mention the fact that Fisher has been dropping in the polls while Brunner has been rising? Funny how the polling in the race started to get ignored the second it stopped favoring Fisher, isn’t it?

Brunner talks jobs

This video, via Progress Ohio, is from WUPW in Toledo. While Lee Fisher is touting endorsements from his own consultants, Jennifer Brunner is talking about an issue that matters to you.

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The "Oh Shit" Poll

That would be one way to describe this one, that shows Governor Strickland trailing John Kasich 48%-39%. But on the bright side, maybe people won't realize that Lee Fisher is Lieutenant Governor, and his numbers will surely be better? Right?

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Plouffe fundraising for Fisher

Well that is no good. In an email to Lee Fisher supporters, former Obama campaign manager David Plouffe writes:

As the end-of-year fundraising deadline approaches -- and with the holidays
almost upon us -- this week is an ideal time to help Lee Fisher make a strong
showing. We need Lee Fisher in the Senate to move Ohio forward on jobs, health
care, and energy -- and can't let Republicans bring back George Bush economics.

Just for that, I am not going to buy his book. It is clear that the establishment has chosen their candidate. But it is okay. The people will still get to decide this one. But I am guessing that the Fish is going to have another pretty strong showing in the financials at the upcoming deadline.

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A different kind of campaign

There seems to be basically two ways that a politician can go about running for a big office. They can take the safe road, and only take positions on simple, non-controversial issues. This is the road that Lee Fisher is on. His website lays out his positions in terms that almost every Democrat can agree on, and avoids the more hot button issues such as gay marriage, etc. He came out against the troop surge in Afghanistan and the Stupak amendment only after he realized that those had became mainstream Democratic causes. Running a campaign this way is an insult to the people who actually pay attention, but it is smart politics.

Another, less politically wise option for candidates is exemplified by Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, who wants to be President in 2012. Pawlenty, and many other Republicans, are overly eager to take a position on everything. When Obama bowed in Japan, they were out with a statement. When Obama wanted to have a beer with Gates and the Cambridge police officer, they were out with a statement. Every single debate that comes up in Congress, they put out a statement, as if what the Governor of Minnesota (or the former Governors of Arkansas and Massachusetts, etc.) thinks matters to the people of every other state. Doing this shows nothing but a desperation to stay relevant.

And then there is what Jennifer Brunner is doing. Rather than simply releasing statements, she puts forth thoughtful, well-informed, detailed proposals on matters of policy. And she does so not only on topics that are politically advantageous, but on ones that she believes in, from her opposition to the troop surge to her opposition to capital punishment. Perhaps Jennifer Brunner is the underdog because she is not nearly as shrewd of a politician as Lee Fisher. But that is exactly the reason that she will make a better United States Senator.

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Fisher tells us what he's against, instead of what he is for

OhioDaily dissects Lee Fisher's statement that came out following the President's address earlier this evening, and they hit the nail on the head:

I applaud his stance. I think he's correct in his position. He makes it very clear what he's against. And he leaves little for the NRCC to throw back in his face.

What I don't know is what he's FOR. And that, my friends, makes me crazy. Again.

It shouldn't be this hard. We should be able to know exactly where our candidates are on these types of issues. Jennifer Brunner gave a significantly larger response and did it two days earlier when she called on the President to, among other things, adopt the policy positions set out by Les Gelb's National Security Network. Their proposal outlines several objectives beyond "we don't need more troops." In fact, it's probably the most progressive and best articulated vision I've read thus far.

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What does Lee Fisher think we should do in Afghanistan? Nobody knows.

Yesterday, Jennifer Brunner offered thoughtful insight about where she feels U.S. policy in Afghanistan should be headed. Rarely do you see candidates running for major office take such an unambiguous stance on a controversial issue. But when Jennifer Brunner believes in something, she stands up for it (see: gay marriage, death penalty).

Lee Fisher, on the other hand, seems to believe in only one thing: winning elections. That is why you don't see him taking a stand at all on what very well could be the most important foreign policy decision that President Obama ever makes. OhioDaily touched on this yesterday.

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The Issues

Both the Fisher and Brunner campaign websites feature a section outlining their candidate's positions on the issues. You can view Fisher's here and Brunner's here. What jumps out as you first glance at these pages? The Brunner website includes a section for "Reproductive Freedom," "Civil Rights," and "Reforming the Financial System." It would seem as though a woman's right to choose, equality for all Americans, and fixing the broken financial system are not important to Lee Fisher, as he does not include his position on any of them on his website. He does, however, include his position on "Children." Apparently he supports them.

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Why is Lee Fisher not further ahead?

It is a fair question, is it not? The media has all but crowned him as the Democratic nominee, because of his superior fundraising, yet the polls remain neck and neck. You could argue that he hasn't actually spent much of that money yet, which is true. But what exactly is he going to buy that will suddenly convince voters that he is a better choice? Most voters already know Lee Fisher and know him well, so the fact that they are not supporting him yet is a very bad sign for him.

On top of the money, there is the growing number of endorsements from elected officials across the state, and he keeps adding more. But as he as continued to add more endorsements and raise more money, Jennifer Brunner has steadily gained on him in the polls. It really doesn't seem to make much sense. But, that is the great thing about primaries these days. The establishment does not get to decide. The voters do. And that is a good thing, because we are a lot smarter than they are.

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Brunner and Fisher are dead even

A new Quinnipiac poll out today proves yet again that the race for the Democratic nomination is neck and neck, and Jennifer Brunner has all of the momentum. Democratic voters favor Lee Fisher by a statistically insignificant margin, 24%-22%. The poll also shows both candidates doing equally well against Rob Portman.

Democratic leaders continue to call upon Brunner to drop out of the race because she has not raised as much money as Fisher. But why should she when the race is still neck and neck? Obviously there are still many voters undecided, and Fisher will have an advantage in reaching out to them if he has more money to spend. But the point is this: right now, they are even, with Brunner actually gaining on Fisher, and this race is a long way from being over. The pundits would be wise to start treating this like a closely contested race, because that is what it is.

Update: From the Plain Dealer:

In fact, the new Quinnipiac poll shows Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner
gaining on Fisher. She gets 22 percent, he gets 24, in a fanciful matchup today.

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Fisher chimes in

It turns out that Lee Fisher is, in fact, pro-choice. He is just a little behind Jennifer Brunner in saying so, and not quite as passionate.

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